A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
